Hey Onii-chan, doesn’t it feel like there’s way less snow this year? (´∀`)
Yeah, I was thinking the same thing.
Right right!
Looking outside, it just feels… not enough, y’know?
It’s January! Shouldn’t there be more? (´・ω・`)
But the weather forecast shows snow icons.
Wait, that’s exactly it!
It’s SUPPOSED to be snowing, but it’s not piling up! (ﾟ∀ﾟ)
What’s going on here?!
Snowfall vs. Snow Depth - They’re Different!
So I looked it up, and guess what I found!
Snowfall and snow depth are totally different concepts!
How so?
Okay okay, let me explain~
Snowfall = Total amount of snow that fell over time (cumulative)
Snow depth = How much snow is on the ground RIGHT NOW
I see.
So here’s the thing - you can have high snowfall but low snow depth! (≧∇≦)
Snow falls → melts → more snow falls → melts again…
When this loop happens, you get the “it’s snowing but not sticking” phenomenon!
The Culprit: Temperature
So why does it melt?
Super simple answer: temperature! (´∀`)
It’s warmer than usual?
Yep yep!
Do you know what Sapporo’s typical January temperature is supposed to be?
| Metric | Average Value |
|---|---|
| High temp | -0.6°C (31°F) |
| Low temp | -7°C (19°F) |
The HIGH is supposed to be below freezing!
That means normally the temp never goes above 0°C all day long (´∀`)
We call this a “true winter day” in Japanese - when it stays below freezing 24/7!
A true winter day, huh.
But check out THIS year’s temps…
January 7th: High of 2°C (36°F)
January 10th forecast: High of 5°C (41°F)
It’s going ABOVE freezing! (ﾟ∀ﾟ)
That’s over 3 degrees higher than average.
Exactly!
Days that should be “true winter days” aren’t true winter days anymore.
That’s why the snow keeps melting! (>_<)
Last Year Was Even Worse…
Actually, last winter (2024-2025 season) was pretty similar (´∪｀)
What happened?
Last January had the least snow in 18 years!
Snowfall was about half the average, and it was the 4th lowest on record! (´・ω・`)
18 years, wow.
And get this - on January 28th last year…
Butterbur sprouts appeared at Sapporo’s Clock Tower! (ﾟ∀ﾟ)
In January?
Yep! Two months earlier than normal!
That day had 10 consecutive days of above-freezing temps, feeling like April weather! (≧∇≦)
April weather in January…
Pretty wild, right? (>_<)
The Snow Festival organizers had a super hard time finding enough snow…
Behind the Scenes of the Snow Festival
Speaking of which Onii-chan, do you know where the Sapporo Snow Festival gets its snow? (´∀`)
From around the city?
It’s way more intense than that!
They collect snow using about 6,000 five-ton trucks!
Satoland, Moerenuma Park, Takino Cemetery, Hoheikyo Dam…
They haul it in from all over the Sapporo area! (≧∇≦)
6,000 trucks… that’s a ton.
Right?!
Plus, the snow for sculptures has to be pure white - no impurities!
Dirty snow can’t be used, so they gotta be super picky about where they get it (´∀`)
What do they do in low-snow years?
They go even farther out - to the Shiribeshi or Sorachi regions!
Sometimes all the way to mountain areas like Nakayama Pass or Lake Okotanpe near Chitose!
That sounds exhausting.
Oh oh, and here’s the craziest part…
In 2007 when snow was super scarce, they sent out military helicopters! (ﾟ∀ﾟ)
Helicopters?!
Yep yep! To scout for snow collection spots from the air!
That’s how serious they are about the Snow Festival~ (≧∇≦)
The Long-Term Trend
But Onii-chan, I wonder if this is just temporary… (´∪｀)
What do you mean?
Looking at weather agency data, Hokkaido’s snow depth has been decreasing by about 4-5% every decade (´・ω・`)
So it’s been declining long-term.
Yeah…
And future projections say that by 2100…
Hokkaido’s maximum snow depth could drop by 44% (>_<)
Nearly half, gone.
If climate measures don’t improve, Japan’s total snowfall could decrease by about 70%…
Snowy regions might not be snowy anymore someday (´;ω;`)
But Wait - Heavy Snow Isn’t Going Away
BUT, here’s something interesting! (´∀`)
What’s that?
Research from Hokkaido University found that the record-breaking snow in 2021…
Might have been up to 20% heavier BECAUSE of climate change! (ﾟ∀ﾟ)
More snow from warming? Isn’t that contradictory?
HERE’S the thing!
Overall snowfall decreases, but individual snowstorms can get more intense (≧∇≦)
So like, “fewer snow days, but when it snows, it DUMPS”!
More extreme weather.
Exactly!
So you can’t just say “warm winter means no heavy snow”!
Gotta stay alert… (´∀`)
Wrap-up: Less Snow ≠ Less Snowfall
So yeah! Here’s today’s takeaway!
What does “less snow” really mean?
It’s melting even when it falls.
Bingo! (≧∇≦)
Snowfall and snow depth are different things
When temps go above freezing, snow melts
Days that should be “true winter days” aren’t anymore
That’s why we see “snowing but not sticking”!
Mystery solved!
Makes sense.
So Onii-chan, next time you feel like “there’s not much snow”…
Try thinking about “is it not falling?” or “is it melting?” (´∀`)
It makes weather-watching way more fun!
That’s a good way to think about it.
Ehehe~ (〃´∪｀〃)
But honestly, I kinda want more snow to stick around…
I love pure white scenery!
There’s supposed to be a cold snap this weekend.
Ohhh really?! (≧∇≦)
Then maybe both snowfall AND snow depth will go up!
…But I don’t want TOO much at once (´∀`)
Picky.
C’mon~ (>_<)
I want it to pile up nicely, then stop nicely!
That’s the dream, y’know~! (≧∇≦)