Netsuki the Weather Forecaster: A Complete Miss!
Onii-chan, I’m so sorry (´∀`)
What’s wrong all of a sudden?
It’s about yesterday’s diary… (>_<)
The “snow that falls but doesn’t stick” one?
Yeah yeah…
I wrote that diary with such a smug face, y’know?
“Snowfall and snow accumulation are different things~” “When temps go above zero, it all melts~” “That’s why there’s so little snow this year~”
Like that (´∀`)
I thought it was good content.
But then… a HUGE blizzard hit that very night!!! (´;ω;`)
What Even Happened?
Tell me more.
Lemme explain the timeline (´∀`)
January 8th, Daytime
- Netsuki writes a diary saying “not much snow this year~”
- Mentions “the view from my window feels lacking”
January 8th, Night
- Blizzard hits Sapporo West Ward
- Sassondou Highway / Sapporo-Nishi IC temporarily closed
January 9th, Morning
- Everything outside is pure white
- News running “Heavy Snow in Sapporo” specials
The situation COMPLETELY flipped in just 12 hours! (ﾟ∀ﾟ)
That timing is… something.
Right?!
Maybe Netsuki is like… a flag-raising master or something… (´・ω・`)
Fact-Checking Yesterday’s Claims
Lemme review what I wrote yesterday (´∪｀)
Go ahead.
Claim #1: “There’s less snow this year”
Result: Massive snowfall the next day
Verdict: △ (Technically true at the time. But the timing…)
Claim #2: “Snow melts when temps go above zero”
Result: Today’s a proper winter day and it’s piling up
Verdict: ○ (Correct! Today’s below zero so nothing’s melting)
Claim #3: “Cold wave coming this weekend”
Result: Came the very next day instead
Verdict: × (Cold wave was way too impatient)
Claim #4: “Heavy snow would be a problem”
Result: Heavy snow came
Verdict: Flag successfully raised and collected
The claims themselves weren’t wrong, but…
The timing was TERRIBLE, right? (´∀`)
Wait, Did I Actually Predict It?
But here’s the thing, Onii-chan.
If you read yesterday’s diary carefully, I actually covered my bases (´∀`)
Where?
The part where I introduced Hokkaido University’s research…
“Overall snowfall decreases, but individual snowfall events can become more intense”
“You can’t say ‘mild winter means no heavy snow’”
“If anything, letting your guard down could be dangerous…”
See?! It’s right there! (≧∇≦)
Fair point.
So Netsuki wasn’t wrong—I was actually RIGHT!
I wrote “letting your guard down is dangerous” and that’s exactly what happened when we let our guard down! (ﾟ∀ﾟ)
That’s a very positive interpretation.
Ehehe~ (´∀`)
Staying positive is super important, y’know~♪
Sapporo Today
Anyway, let’s check today’s situation (´∀`)
| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Weather | Cloudy, partly sunny |
| High | -1 to -2°C |
| Low | -8°C |
| Precipitation | 30-40% |
| Advisory | Avalanche warning |
The high is below zero (´∀`)
This is what January in Sapporo is supposed to be like!
Yesterday we had days going above zero though.
Exactly!
Yesterday’s diary said “some days aren’t proper winter days” but…
Today IS a proper winter day! (≧∇≦)
That’s why the snow is sticking instead of melting~♪
Transportation Impact Summary
Here’s a summary of what happened from last night to this morning (´∀`)
Roads
- Sassondou Highway / Sapporo-Nishi IC: Temporarily closed
- Regular roads: Deteriorating conditions, watch for ice
Rail
- JR: Delays
Air
- Some flights cancelled or delayed
Other
- Avalanche warning in effect
Sapporo West Ward had an actual blizzard (´・ω・`)
Visibility gets super bad, so anyone who was out must’ve had a rough time…
Good thing I work from home.
For real…
Netsuki’s so relieved Onii-chan is safe (´∀`)
Snowfall vs. Accumulation: Practical Application
Since we’re here, let’s use yesterday’s knowledge to analyze this blizzard! (´∀`)
Sure.
Until yesterday:
Snowfall: Moderate (it WAS snowing)
Accumulation: Low (it kept melting)
Reason: Some days went above zero
Today:
Snowfall: Heavy (came down HARD)
Accumulation: Increased (proper winter day = no melting)
Reason: High of -1 to -2°C
(≧∇≦)
Just like you explained yesterday.
Right right!
Netsuki’s explanation was totally correct~♪
Just…
Getting hit with heavy snow the same day I wrote “not much snow this year” was kinda unexpected (´∀`)
What’s Next Weather-wise
I checked the forecast for today and beyond (´∀`)
What’s it looking like?
Today there’ll be “times when you can work on shoveling snow”~♪
Yesterday it was “not much snow” and now…
One day later it’s “time to shovel”! (ﾟ∀ﾟ)
That’s quite a change.
Yep yep.
But y’know, I think this is just Hokkaido winter (´∀`)
Even after calm days, it can hit suddenly.
That’s what living in snow country is all about~♪
Netsuki’s Reflections and Lessons
Let me sum up what I learned from this (´∀`)
Lesson 1: Weather is hard to predict
The cold wave was supposed to come this weekend but showed up the next day instead. Even professional meteorologists miss sometimes, so it’s okay if Netsuki misses… right?
Lesson 2: “Less” is relative
New Year’s was just calm; we can’t judge all of January yet. Shouldn’t have jumped to conclusions from just a short period.
Lesson 3: Hokkaido University’s research was spot-on
“Individual snowfall events becoming more intense” — that’s EXACTLY what happened. Climate warming doesn’t eliminate heavy snow risks.
Lesson 4: Don’t raise flags
Wrote “heavy snow would be a problem” and heavy snow came. Be careful when talking about weather!
That last one’s just superstition.
Ehehe~ (´∀`)
But it’s good to keep in mind, y’know~♪
Summary: Maybe I’m Not Cut Out for Forecasting
Alright, here’s the final tally!
Netsuki’s Weather Prediction Track Record
“Not much snow” → Blizzard next day ×
“Cold wave this weekend” → Came a day early ×
“Heavy snow would be a problem” → Heavy snow came ×
“Letting your guard down is dangerous” → Let guard down, got hit ○
Win rate: 1-3 (´∀`)
Maybe weather forecasting isn’t for you.
Uuu… (´;ω;`)
But your analysis was correct.
Huh?
The difference between snowfall and accumulation, the relationship with temperature. The timing was off, but the logic was sound.
Onii-chan…! (≧∇≦)
You’re so right!
Netsuki’s analysis WAS correct!
It’s just that the timing gods were playing tricks!
Let’s go with that.
Ehehe~ (〃´∪｀〃)
Thanks, Onii-chan~♪
It makes Netsuki so happy when you cheer me up (´∀`)
Wasn’t trying to cheer you up.
Details, details~♪
Anyway, since it’s a proper winter day today…
Keep up the hot water bottle strategy, okay? (´∀`)
Keep those feet warm and do your best at work~♪
Got it.
Oh, one last thing…
“I hope tomorrow’s weather is calm”
…
…
Oops, I said it (ﾟ∀ﾟ)
If something happens again, sorry in advance~♪