Normal: 8°C

Hey Miko, know what Sapporo’s high is gonna be today?

…How warm, nya.

8°C.

…It’s February, nya.

Right, February. But here’s the thing… I wasn’t even surprised.

…What’s wrong with that, nya.

That’s exactly it. I heard “8°C” and just went “yeah, whatever.” Why?

So it bugged me enough to look up the JMA data. Sapporo’s daily average highs for February:

…Negative, nya. The first half of the month is below freezing, nya.

The monthly average is around 0°C. In Sapporo’s February, even the HIGH barely crosses zero. That’s how cold it’s supposed to be.

Remember when I looked into why snow wasn’t sticking even though it kept falling? The whole thing about days where the high never reaches 0°C?

…The reason snow melts instead of piling up is temperature, nya.

February in Sapporo is supposed to be all sub-zero highs. And today? 8°C. That’s nearly 8 degrees above normal.

…A fridge, nya.

A fridge?

A fridge should stay between 3°C and 5°C, nya. Raise it 8 degrees and that’s 13°C. Food goes bad at that temperature, nya.

…! Wait, that’s actually a super good way to put it.

An 8-degree jump isn’t “a little warm,” nya. That’s outside safe range, nya.

So I kept digging. Pulled up the data from February 2024.

…What happened, nya.

February 19th, 2024. Sapporo’s high: 13.9°C.

…Nyan?!

That’s mid-April weather. And just 16 days before that, on February 3rd, the low was -9°C.

Same month. A 23-degree swing.

…A roller coaster, nya.

When people hear “global warming,” they kinda picture this slow, steady temperature creep, right?

…That’s not what’s happening, nya?

The average IS going up, but what’s really changing is how wild the swings get. Warm days get way warmer, then the cold snaps back hard. Same thing I found with those sudden blizzards — remember that?

…Like opening and closing a fridge door over and over, nya. The temperature inside keeps lurching, nya.

Exactly. The average goes up a little. But the real danger is those swings getting bigger.

Miko, y’know what happened at the Snow Festival in 2012?

…Nya.

A snow sculpture collapsed during the festival and a visitor got hurt.

…The temperature, nya?

Yep. The high that day was only 2.2°C. Just warm enough for early March. The Snow Miku sculpture went soft and fell apart.

Now imagine if it had been 8°C.

…I’d rather not, nya.

Remember when I walked through Odori Park after the festival ended? The heavy machinery sitting quiet, the sculptures already gone? What if that scene comes… before anyone decides it should?

…That’s not the same thing, nya.

Huh?

That was cleanup, nya. You understood it yourself — they were making room for next year. But melting isn’t cleanup, nya. Nobody chose it, nya.

…

Clearing the plates and food going bad are different things, nya. Both mean it’s gone, but the meaning is completely different, nya.

Miko. Let me circle back to where this started.

…The part where 8°C stopped surprising you, nya.

Last year, the year before — there were warm February days. So when I heard “8°C” I just shrugged.

But that’s weird, right? If the normal high is 0°C and I’m not batting an eye at 8°C, that’s like seeing my fridge at 13°C and going “eh, fine.”

…”Got used to abnormal,” nya?

Yeah… maybe I just got used to it.

…Wrong, nya.

Huh?

You didn’t get used to it, nya. You forgot, nya. Forgot what normal even was.

…

You don’t panic at 37°C because you know your baseline is 36.5°C, nya. But if you forget your baseline, 37.5°C feels like “yeah, that’s about right,” nya.

…Sapporo’s February “baseline” is 0°C.

…Nya. 8°C is not “about right,” nya.

The forecast keeps calling these “once in a decade” highs. But I feel like I heard that last year too.

…If “once a decade” happens every year, it’s not once a decade, nya.

The yardstick is outdated, I think. “Once a decade” is calculated from old data. But if the baseline itself has shifted, those old benchmarks can’t keep up.

…Measuring with a thermometer whose scale has drifted, nya.

That’s why “once a decade” keeps showing up every year. The scale just hasn’t caught up with reality.

…

Miko. If your fridge’s temperature went up by 1°C, would you notice?

…I’d notice, nya.

How come?

Because I open it every day, nya. I check the temperature, nya. It’s habit, nya.

…! Right right right! (≧∇≦)

Knowing the baseline isn’t enough. You gotta check it every day. “What’s it at today?” — you gotta keep asking.

…A fridge nobody checks is just a box, nya.

Today I thought “oh, that again.” That was me opening the fridge and not looking at the thermometer.

So this diary entry? This is me looking. February in Sapporo. Baseline: 0°C. Today: 8°C. That’s not normal.

…Nya.

…Netsuki.

Hm?

…Will you check the thermometer next February too, nya?

Every year. Baseline is 0°C. I’m not gonna forget that.

…Nya. Check before you close the door, nya.