Who Decides When Winter Is Over?

Miko, Onii-chan just said “maybe it’s time to switch tires back”

…From winter tires to summer tires, nya?

Yeah. Remember back in October when the first snow hit? He was dreading having to swap them. Said if you don’t book early you’re stuck waiting weeks

…I remember, nya. Back then it wasn’t “when should I switch” — it was “I gotta do this NOW before it’s too late,” nya

Right. Fall is a rush. Once that first snow falls, there’s no time to think. But spring is… the opposite

…The opposite, nya?

When to switch back — it’s totally different depending on who you ask

So I looked into it. In Sapporo, people switch back to summer tires in roughly three waves

The earliest group goes around mid-March. Daytime temps go above freezing, dry pavement starts showing up, and they’re like “it’s not gonna snow again, right?” and just go for it

The biggest group waits until early April. Sapporo’s average last snowfall is April 19th, so they figure “it might snow again, but it won’t stick”

And the most cautious group holds out until Golden Week holidays at the end of April. Like “just in case, I’m not taking any chances”

…That’s a month and a half spread, nya

Yep. Same city, totally different answers

…There’s no right answer, nya

There isn’t. But everyone’s weirdly confident about their own answer

…Then why not just play it safe and keep the winter tires on all year, nya?

That’s the thing — you can’t

Winter tire rubber is made soft on purpose so it won’t harden in the cold. The surface is covered with tons of tiny slits called “sipes” that grip ice and snow

But that softness backfires on dry roads. Braking distance gets longer. Compared to summer tires, it takes about 10% more road to stop on dry pavement

…10%, nya

If you slam the brakes going 60 km/h, summer tires stop you in time. Winter tires? You’re still rolling. That gap is about 2 to 3 meters

…2 meters is one person’s length, nya

…Yeah

And soft rubber wears down way faster on dry roads. Run winter tires through summer and the tread might be gone before the next winter even starts

…The tires you put on to stay safe become unsafe if you keep them on too long, nya

Exactly

…But same city, same weather forecast — why does everyone come up with a different answer, nya

I was thinking about that too. I think it’s because they’re all looking at different things

Like, someone who drives on the main roads every day for work — big roads get plowed first, so they dry out fast. To that person, it looks like “roads are already clear”

But someone who mostly drives through residential side streets? They’re seeing shady patches that are still frozen solid. Same Sapporo, totally different view

…The roads you drive decide what you think, nya

And it’s not just that — people near the mountains and people near the coast live in completely different seasons. Up by the hills there’s still snow on the ground while downtown feels like full-on spring

…It’s not the same city, nya. Different neighborhoods, different seasons

Yeah. And there’s also what happened last year. If someone got hit by a bad April snowstorm, they play it safe this year. If someone switched in March and nothing bad happened, they’ll do March again

…They’re not following the forecast. They’re following their own memory, nya

Probably. Gut feeling over data

Okay this part is kind of great — if you ask gas station workers, they can tell by the order people show up

…The order, nya?

Mid-March brings the people who commute on major roads and the car nerds. The ones who trust their own judgment come first

April is when it gets crazy busy. “Everyone else is switching so I guess I should too” people. That’s the biggest group

Right before Golden Week holidays you get the road trip crowd. “Wait, winter tires are bad on the highway?” — first time they even think about it

…People who decide for themselves, people who follow the crowd, and people who only move when they have to, nya

Wait (ﾟ∀ﾟ) — Miko, that’s literally perfect

…I wasn’t categorizing anything, nya. Just stating facts, nya

Remember when we talked about gas prices? How stations actually make their money from car washes and inspections, not fuel. Tire swaps are the same deal — 2,000 yen per tire, and during peak season the whole staff is on deck

…It’s not just a place that sells fuel, nya

Gas stations only make a few yen per liter of fuel. The reason they stay in business? Stuff like this. Tire swaps twice a year are a big deal for them

…Netsuki

Yeah

In fall, there’s a signal for tire switching — first snow, nya. It falls, you switch. Almost no room for judgment, nya

But spring has no signal for when it’s over, nya

…

You can’t know the “last snow” until after it’s already fallen, nya. That’s why everyone has a different answer. Each person is deciding their own “it’s not winter anymore,” nya

…Winter starts when the sky tells you. But winter ends when you decide it does?

…Nya

Onii-chan said “maybe soon” today. Not “I’m switching” — just “maybe soon”

He’ll probably check the morning temperature a few more times, check the road conditions, stare at the weather forecast — and then finally go “alright, let’s do it”

…It’s like tending a nukadoko, nya

Huh? Like, the fermented rice bran bed thing?

You touch it every day, check the smell, and decide “not yet” or “today’s the day,” nya. It’s not in any manual. Your hands just know, nya

…Maybe Onii-chan’s tire swap timing is the same kind of thing — something his hands learned from doing it year after year

…How many years now, nya

Since he moved to Sapporo, so… probably a lot

…Then he knows, nya. “Maybe soon” is something only someone who remembers says, nya

…

Maybe I should book the tire appointment for him… sometime next week?

…Netsuki decides for him, nya? Didn’t you just say “everyone’s different,” nya

Ugh…